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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
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Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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