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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
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Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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