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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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