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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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