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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Tuesday, 26 October 21
ENERGY CRISIS SHOWS COAL IS AN EXPENSIVE AND UNRELIABLE SOURCE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION - IEEFA
Any knee-jerk reaction that urges more investment in coal completely misses the point
India is teetering on the brink of joining a growing glo ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA TO INVESTIGATE ENERGY INDEX PROVIDERS IN BID TO TAME COAL PRICES - REUTERS
China said on Monday it will investigate energy price index providers as it urged coal industry participants to “strictly” meet contrac ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
THERE IS PLENTY OF COAL AND GAS IN THE WORLD BUT A VOLATILE MARKET IS NOBODY'S FRIEND - IEEFA
Gas will be winding its way out of the energy system
Gas prices are continuing to surge around the world. The cost of gas is at unpr ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
AUSTRALIA EXPORTED 51.6 MLN TONNES OF COAL TO INDIA IN FIRST 10 MONTHS, 19% OF ALL AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS; CHINA WAS THE DESTINATION FOR JUST 0.7% - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. In 2021 things started pretty badly, but we are seeing increasing signs of ...
Monday, 25 October 21
A QUESTION OF POSSESSION - THE BALTIC EXCHANGE
Possession and tangibility are closely related concepts long established under English law. Yet a change to these concepts is around the corner. Th ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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