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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
Thursday, 28 October 21
CANADA BAN ON SHIPPING COAL WOULD EQUAL SCRAPPING AS MANY AS 3 MILLION CARS - IEEFA
Canada ban on shipping coal would equal scrapping as many as 3 million cars
Change in Canadian policy could have major implications ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI BEEFS UP COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
Major coal producers in north China’s Shanxi Province, a leading coal-producing region of the country, have beefed up production to ensure en ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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