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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA TO LAUNCH NEW DATA MONITORING SYSTEM, TARGETING COAL MARKET SPECULATION, HOARDING - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner announced on Sunday a new data system for supervising the implementation of medium- and long-term contracts of c ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA’S STATE PLANNER SAYS COAL SUPPLY IMPROVING, PRICES STABILISING - REUTERS
China’s coal supply situation has seen significant improvement with joint efforts from coal producers, logistics and downstream users, while ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
HIGHER COKING COAL PRICES TO PARE PROFITABILITY OF STEELMAKERS IN SECOND HALF OF FY22 - CRISIL RATINGS
The operating margin of primary steelmakers will reduce by a third to 24-26% in the second half of this fiscal versus the first half as input cost ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stati ...
Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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