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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Tuesday, 09 November 21
ASIA-PACIFIC IS HOME TO SOME OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CARBON-EMITTERS - 2 CHARTS SHOW ITS RELIANCE ON COAL - CNBC
Asia-Pacific is home to some of the world’s largest carbon emitters — and experts say much of global efforts to fight climate change de ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
CHINA DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS MULTI-YEAR PEAK, PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output hit 11.93 million tonnes last week, a multi-year high as more capacity returned to operation, the state planner sai ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA'S COAL MARKET SEES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner has declared initial success in its efforts to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, saying that daily coal o ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA THERMAL COAL PRICES RISE AFTER FALLING FOR 10 DAYS - REUTERS
China thermal coal futures rebounded on Wednesday after falling for 10 days on an expected jump in fuel demand to meet heating needs amid forecasts ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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