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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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