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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Thursday, 25 November 21
SE ASIA POWER DEMAND TO RISE AS STATE SUPPORT MITIGATES COVID-19 IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
Electricity demand in south-east Asia is likely to increase in 2021, following slow growth or contraction in 2020, thanks to state support that has ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to glob ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICE DROPS IN MID-NOVEMBER AMID GOVERNMENT’S SWEEPING MEASURES - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s coal prices have dropped significantly in mid-November compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of coking coal and co ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Inflation is the word that has dominated the meetings of foreign leaders and finance ministers in recent weeks, as rising energy costs, supply chai ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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