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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Monday, 06 December 21
CHINA SETS 2022 ANNUAL THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 700 YUAN/T - MEDIA: REUTERS
China’s top economic planner has proposed to set annual thermal coal prices for 2022 at between 550 yuan and 850 yuan ($86-$133) per tonne, a ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
BUMI RECORDED US$ 666.18 MILLION AS REVENUE IN THE 3RD QUARTER, UP 13.31% YOY
PT Bumi Resources Tbk and its subsidiaries have recorded a surge in revenue in the third quarter of 2021. BUMI has recorded US$ 666.18 million as r ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
CHINA'S COAL CRUNCH IS OVER, BUT PRICES ARE STILL TOO HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal crisis has largely been resolved with gains in both production and stockpiles sufficient to ensure power supplies over winter.
...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
2022 OUTLOOK: INDONESIAN COAL MINING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has a neutral outlook on the Indonesian coal sector for 2022.
Earnings generation should slow down as selling pr ...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
SUPPLY OF COAL TO POWER PLANTS IN NOV MORE THAN CONSUMPTION: JOSHI - PTI
The supply of coal to power plants in November is more than the consumption, resulting in rise in stock of dry fuel at power plants, and this trend ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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