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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
Tuesday, 14 December 21
COAL LOCK-IN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK'S COAL RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
In August, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced an ambitious plan to buy high emissions coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asia and retire ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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