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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Saturday, 11 December 21
BUNKER BUYERS LOSE UP TO $5/MT FOR NOT COVERING ENOUGH SUPPLIERS - INTEGR8 FUELS
With the Brent price recently touching the $80 mark and before the Omicron variant concerns pushed it lower, bunker prices reached levels not seen ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
SUPERCYCLE DEMAND: ARE WE THERE YET? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Taking young children on a long journey is fraught with challenges, not least the inevitable question a few minutes after leaving: are we there yet ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL WOULD REMAIN ENERGY LEADER FOR AT LEAST 15 YEARS - LIVEMINT
Coal India Ltd (CIL) has been in the eye of the storm after fuel stocks at coal-fuelled power plants depleted in October. Fuel stocks since are bei ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
GLOBAL SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE FROM POSITIVE ON THE BACK OF PEAKING EARNINGS DURING 2021 - MOODY'S
The outlook for the global shipping industry is changed to stable from positive for the next 12 to 18 months due to demand slightly outstripping su ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL FIRMS SEE SHARE PRICES SURGE MONDAY, AFTER GOVERNMENT READJUSTS CONTRACT PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Share prices of China’s coal enterprises jumped on Monday on the A-share market following a nationwide adjustment to annual thermal coal pric ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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