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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Wednesday, 05 January 22
INDONESIA WARNS COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH NOT OVER AS CHINA PRICES RALLY - REUTERS
Indonesia has warned that its coal supply situation remains critical, ahead of Wednesday’s (Jan 5) review of its export ban, unnerving global ...
Tuesday, 28 December 21
INDIA'S ADANI NEARS FIRST COAL SHIPMENT FROM SHUNNED AUSTRALIAN MINE - REUTERS
India’s Adani Group ADEL.NS is preparing to ship the first coal cargo from Australia’s most controversial mine, after battling a seven- ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL TO STAY AS MAJOR SOURCE OF ENERGY IN FORESEEABLE FUTURE: JOSHI - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will stay as a major source of energy in the foreseeable future as it is an affordable source of energy with substantial reserve, Parliament w ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
ANNUAL U.S. COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION WILL INCREASE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2014 - EIA
From December 20 through December 30, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2021. Today’s article was originally pu ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL DEMAND TO PEAK IN INDIA BY 2030, WILL BACK UP RENEWABLES: NITI REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will remain India’s mainstay energy source and the country will shape global demand this decade, two reports have said a month after the ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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