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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Wednesday, 26 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While it is logical that most of the S&P reports of the first weeks of the year are linked to very limited activity as reflected in the weekly ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA: DME PROJECT IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AS STUDY DEMONSTRATES
The government is encouraging downstream coal processing or increase in coal added value, for example by turning coal into Dimethyl Ether (DME) to ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
COMMODITY PRICES COULD SOAR IF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES - ING
It appears that a number of commodity markets are starting to at least price in some geopolitical risk around the growing tension between Russia an ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA'S COAL BAN SENDS PRICES SOARING, OTHER EXPORTERS FAIL TO STEP UP - REUTERS
Indonesia’s short-lived ban on exporting coal has sent ructions through the seaborne market for the fuel in Asia, with the fallout likely to ...
Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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