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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed pr ...
Monday, 31 January 22
HOW INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT BAN COULD IMPACT INDIA - IEEFA
What does it mean for power generation and energy security?
Not long ago, India faced coal shortages due to a decline in domestic co ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
AIR PRODUCTS' COAL GASIFICATION PROPOSAL TRIGGERS LOOMING POLICY DISPUTES IN INDONESIA - IEEFA
Plan to substitute Indonesia’s LPG imports with dimethyl ether may be hard to realize due to conflicting business interests
In ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
ENDGAME FOR NEW COAL POWER PROJECTS? - IEEFA INDIA
Retired coal units must be replaced only by assets that can provide grid flexibility
Reportedly, an expert committee appointed by th ...
Thursday, 27 January 22
2022 - A YEAR OF REBALANCING FOR METALS AND MINING - WOOD MACKENZIE
If 2021 was the year of rebound for metals and mining (M&M) commodities, then 2022 is shaping as the year of rebalance, says Wood Mackenzie, a ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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