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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China& ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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