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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Thursday, 17 February 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES TO EASE ON END OF INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-Shanghai/Singapore-14 February 2022: APAC thermal coal prices are likely to come under pressure in the near term due to seasonally we ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
IS ANOTHER COAL SHORTAGE CRISIS LOOMING OVER INDIA? - BUSINESS STANDARD
In December last year, the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) shot off a letter to the Prime Minister claiming that the coal crisis was ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
THERMAL COAL'S RECORD PRICE RUN MAY END UP ITS OWN WORST ENEMY - REUTERS
The price of benchmark Australian thermal coal rose last week to trade near record highs, providing a short-term boost to producers but increasing ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
INDONESIA: COAL EXPORT BAN - SKULD
Indonesia's coal export ban in the light of force majeure and off-hire clauses
In January 2022, Indonesia, the world's biggest exporte ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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