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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Monday, 21 March 22
A FORCE MAJEURE TO BE RECKONED WITH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Sanctions cause payment confusion
This dispute in MUR Shipping BV v. RTI Ltd [2022] EWHC 467 (Comm) related to an owner’s purported exercis ...
Monday, 21 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 10.3 PCT IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted fast growth in the first two months of 2022, while coal imports continued to shrink, official data showed.
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Tuesday, 15 March 22
INDUSTRY VETERANS & ORGANIZATIONS HONOURED WITH THE PRESTIGIOUS SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL AWARDS 2022
Press Release: The 15th edition of the prestigious ShipTek International Conference & Awards 2022 concluded successfully from March 7th - 8th 2 ...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT GROWS TO STABILIZE MARKET SUPPLY - XINHUA
China’s coal market has seen growth in output since late February amid the country’s efforts to stabilize production and ensure supply, ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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