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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Tuesday, 05 April 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS RECORD ABOVE $288
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for April in a steep climb from March 2022.
As expected, Russia – Ukraine war dr ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA STATE PLANNER ASKS COAL INDEX PROVIDERS TO RECTIFY IRREGULARITIES - REUTERS
China’s state planner has asked some major coal price index providers to rectify “severe irregularities” it had identified in the ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
IMPORTED COAL PRICES TO JUMP 55% IN APR-JUN, IMPACT INDIAN FIRMS: ICRA - LIVEMINT
Supply disruption owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push the price of imported coal by 45-55% in Q1FY23 compared to the previous quarter, ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT SET FOR MODERATE GROWTH IN 2022 - INDUSTRY BODY - REUTERS
China is expected to see its coal output to grow further in 2022 after hitting a record last year, an industry body forecast on Wednesday, as the c ...
Tuesday, 29 March 22
MEMR OF INDONESIA HAS FIXED COAL PRICE AT US$ 90 PER TONNE FOR DOMESTIC INDUSTRIES EXCEPT SMELTER INDUSTRIES; FOR PLN USD 70 IS APPLICABLE
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arifin Tasrif has set the selling price of coal for domestic, industrial except metal processing an ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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