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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Tuesday, 26 April 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS ARE SHIFTING, THERMAL MORE THAN COKING - REUTERS
India’s coal imports are starting to reflect shifting world trade and pricing dynamics in the wake of Russia’s invasion of neighbouring ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS EXPECT A BRIEF SPIKE IN PRICES ON EU BAN - REUTERS
A European Union embargo on Russian coal imports will push up prices in the short term before alternative supplies become available to steady the c ...
Monday, 18 April 22
FINNISH 'LOOPHOLES' ALLOW IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN COAL AND OIL TO CONTINUE - EURONEWS
Activists in Finland are calling for the government to clamp down faster on state-owned companies that continue to import raw materials from Russia ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GOVT IN DISCUSSION WITH WORLD BANK ON FRAMEWORK FOR COAL MINE CLOSURE - BUSINESS STANDARD
The coal ministry is in discussions with the World Bank for collaboration on the mine closure framework, a government official said on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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