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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Wednesday, 29 June 22
LNG MARKET REMAINS TIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG market remains tight currently, mainly driven by the US LNG outage from the recent fire in Freeport LNG terminal together with the recent fall ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 & ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
APAC CORPORATE SECTOR OUTLOOKS SHIFT AMID GLOBAL SHOCKS - FITCH RATINGS’
Fitch Ratings’ mid-2022 corporate sector outlook review revealed that the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region saw the largest number of sector outlook ...
Thursday, 16 June 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Picking up from my last insight in March, on the early days of the invasion, it's worth pointing out the way that the fast-paced working enviro ...
Saturday, 11 June 22
AIMTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AND AWARDS
Press Release: The prestigious AIMTEK International Conference and Awards concluded successfully on June 7th, 2022 at Radisson Blu, Yas Island Abu ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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