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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Thursday, 26 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The newbuilding market activity has been significantly positive from a dry bulk owner perspective during the first half of 2022. Indeed, the contra ...
Wednesday, 18 May 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPPED 4.42% IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for May delivery drops 4.42 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Referen ...
Thursday, 12 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Almost through half of the year, the overall shipping market continues to show signs of healthiness, after plenty of festivities and holidays that ...
Wednesday, 27 April 22
EUROPEAN UNION'S LNG IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
In 2021, the European Union (27) was the third largest seaborne importer of LNG in the world, with a 15.8% share.
It followed Mainla ...
Tuesday, 26 April 22
CHINA'S APPETITE FOR BAUXITE HITS NEW RECORD AS Q1 IMPORTS JUMP 15.4% Y/Y - BIMCO
Bauxite shipments arriving in China hit new record levels in the first quarter of 2022 and grew at an average annual rate of 12.8% between 2017 and ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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