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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Thursday, 30 June 22
WHY ARE LNG SHIPPING STOCKS RESILIENT? - DREWRY
LNG shipping stocks are proving resilient despite uncertainties about growth in global GDP, high inflation and the ongoing geopolitical crisis caus ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SPOT AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL HAS SURGED, BUT CONTRACT PRICE IS KEY - REUTERS
The spot price of Australian thermal coal is higher than that of coking coal, an unprecedented situation that highlights just how the global market ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SHANXI PROVINCE RAISES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT TO 1.3 BILLION TONS TO ENSURE CHINA’S ENERGY SUPPLY - GLOBAL TIMES
North China’s Shanxi Province, a major coal-producing region, recently announced a move to increase its annual coal production output by 107 ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN HIGH- AND LOW-GRADE THERMAL COAL PRICES IN APAC TO NARROW - FITCH RATINGS
Prices between high- and low-grade thermal coal in Asia-Pacific (APAC) have diverged since late March 2022, but Fitch Ratings expects the gap to na ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
INVESTMENT IN GLOBAL COAL SUPPLY CHAIN TO HIT $115 BN IN 2022, LED BY CHINA AND INDIA - BUSINESS LINE
At over $80 billion, China and India are anticipated to make up the bulk of global coal investment in 2022, says IEA.
The investment ...
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Showing 311 to 315 news of total 6871 |
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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