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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Wednesday, 06 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the 3rd Decarbonizing Shipping Forum, held in Hamburg on June 2022, there has been a meaningful resurgence of discussions within the ship ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
WHY ARE VLSFO PRICES SO HIGH, ESPECIALLY IN SINGAPORE? - STEVE CHRISTY, INTEGR8 FUELS
Tightness in products still trumps talks of recession
Last month we wrote about the fears of recession versus the tightness in product markets ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
ADANI ENTERPRISES LOWEST BIDDER IN COAL INDIA'S IMPORT TENDER: REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India Ltd floated its first import tender on behalf of power companies, where Adani Enterprises Ltd came out to be the lowest bidder, a report ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
CHINA POLICY KEY FOR IRON ORE OUTLOOK - ING
China’s covid lockdowns and recessionary risks hit iron ore
Iron ore prices have fallen significantly from their year-to-date high of US$ ...
Monday, 04 July 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIGHTLY DOWN IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for July delivery drops 1.52 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Refere ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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