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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Thursday, 14 July 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS HIT RECORD HIGH IN JUNE - REUTERS
India's coal imports hit a record high in June despite high global prices, data from three trade sources and Refinitiv ship tracking showed, as ...
Thursday, 14 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS SLUMP AS TRADERS SHUN EXPENSIVE OVERSEAS CARGOES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports fell 33% in June from a year ago, with traders turning down expensive overseas cargoes in favor of domestic ones with ca ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 2.79 MILLION TONS OF LOW TO MEDIUM COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1360k MT of Min.4400 kcal/kg NCV coal and Total 1 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
HAVE MINERS MISSED THE BOAT TO INVEST AND GET AHEAD OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Miners are in rude health, benefiting from economic stimuli, the post-pandemic recovery and associated supply constraints. Initially the Ukraine wa ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Taking the previous market insight a step further, market sentiment remains bullish regarding the overall ROI of scrubbers, facing tailwinds from a ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
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