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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
WHY SHIPPING MIGHT BE ABOUT TO GET A LITTLE BIT SLOWER - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
If shipping is the beating heart of global trade, its pulse is about to get slower.
Faced with uncertainty about which fuels to use in the long ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
GERMANY'S INCREASED COAL, OIL USE WILL BE TEMPORARY, SCHOLZ SAYS - CNBC
Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Germany’s decision to reactivate coal and oil-fired power plants to relieve energy shortages because of the war i ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
INDONESIA REMOVES PALM OIL EXPORT LEVY UNTIL AUG. 31 - REUTERS
Indonesia has scrapped its export levy for all palm oil products until Aug. 31 in a fresh attempt to boost exports and ease high inventories, finan ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE DAILY COAL OUTPUT JUMPS ON PEAK SUMMER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in June rose 6.6 per cent from a month earlier as miners cranked up output ahead of peak summer temperatures, when ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
SEEING RED? - WOOD MACKENZIE
What a Republican mid-term victory could mean for US energy and climate policy
According to current polling the Republican Party has ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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