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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Tuesday, 26 July 22
WILL SOUTH AMERICA’S WINTER DEMAND DRAW LNG CARGOES AWAY FROM EUROPE? - ICIS
South America is now in the middle of its winter demand season. Last year the region increased its share of global LNG imports in winter, with Braz ...
Monday, 25 July 22
GLOBAL 2021 COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have be ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
THE EU HAS BEEN REDUCING IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN REFINED OIL PRODUCTS SINCE MARCH - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union could now ban the import and transit of fuel oil from Russia around six months ahead of the planned deadline, an EU official and ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
INDONESIA CONSIDERING SCRAPPING DOMESTIC SALES RULE FOR PALM OIL EXPORTS - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering removing a domestic sales requirement for palm oil exports because high inventories of the vegetable oil have been holding ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per da ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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