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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Saturday, 06 August 22
SUMITOMO Q1 PROFIT RISES 45% ON STRONGER PRICES OF COAL, NICKEL - REUTERS
Japanese trading house Sumitomo Corp 8053.T said on Wednesday its net profit for the April-June quarter rose 45% to a record thanks to higher price ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
GERMANY'S ENERGY U-TURN: COAL INSTEAD OF GAS - DEUTSCHE WELLE
Berlin has realized it will never again import as much energy from Russia as before the Ukraine war. So the challenge is to wean Germany off its de ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
NUANCES OF FORCE MAJEURE CLAUSE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Knowledge to Elevate
In NKD Maritime Limited v. Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (Shagang Giant) [2022] EWHC 1615 (Comm), Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (th ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
AEMO URGES QUICKER SHIFT TO RENEWABLES AMID COAL FAILURES AND SOARING FOSSIL FUEL COSTS
The Australian Energy Market Operator has called for an accelerated shift to wind and solar, backed up by batteries and other storage, as a devasta ...
Friday, 29 July 22
GLENCORE TO SUPPLY COAL TO NIPPON STEEL AT $375 PER TON - BLOOMBERG
Glencore Plc, agreed to supply coal to Nippon Steel at one of the highest prices ever paid by the Japan Bloomberg reported on July 27.
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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