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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Wednesday, 17 August 22
PAXOCEAN, HONG LAM MARINE AND BUREAU VERITAS SIGN MOU TO DEVELOP AMMONIA BUNKER VESSEL DESIGN - BUREAU VERITAS
PaxOcean Engineering Pte. Ltd. has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Singapore-based bunker vessel operator Hong Lam Marine and class ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
GOODFUELSS ASIA-PACIFIC BRANCH KICKSTARTS SUSTAINABLE BIOFUEL DELIVERIES WITH NYK AS FIRST CLIENT - GOOD FUELS
GoodFuels, the leading biofuels pioneer for the global transport industry, has today announced that it has successfully supplied sustainable marine ...
Tuesday, 16 August 22
EU BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS COMES INTO FORCE - DEUTSCHE WELLE
The European Union banned Russian coal imports in response to the invasion of Ukraine as part of sanctions in April. Since then, it’s been sc ...
Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such ...
Wednesday, 10 August 22
THE FUTURE OF COAL: EIGHT KEY THEMES FROM THE GLOBAL COAL FORUM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal investors face a multi-layered and unavoidable challenge: markets distorted by war, trade constraints and the existential threat of the energy ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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