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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Friday, 29 July 22
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IS SET TO RETURN TO ITS ALL-TIME HIGH IN 2022 - IEA
The world’s consumption of coal is set to rise slightly in 2022, taking it back to the record level it reached nearly a decade ago, according ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
CREW FAMILIARISATION IS CRITICAL WHEN TAKING OVER A VESSEL - WEST P&I CLUB
Knowledge to Elevate
When a vessel changes ownership and/or manager, it can take some considerable time before the new crew and mana ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
RETURN OF COAL A THREAT TO EUROPEAN COMPANIES' ESG RATINGS - REUTERS
European companies turning to coal as an alternative to Russian gas face a hit to their environmental, social and governance ratings, leaving them ...
Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal import ...
Tuesday, 26 July 22
CAP RUSSIA'S OIL PRICE NOW - PROJECT SYNDICATE
Though the price of oil has declined in recent weeks, it is still through the roof, filtering through to gasoline prices, and causing economic and ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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