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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Friday, 22 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Faced with uncertainty regarding the most cost-efficient alternative fuels and the future dominant method to reduce their greenhouse emissions, man ...
Friday, 22 July 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA CUTS 2022 COAL OUTPUT VIEW AS FLOODS, COVID BITE - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd YAL.AX cut its 2022 output forecast on Wednesday, signalling a hit from higher-than-expected rainfall, COVID-19-le ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
BOOST FOR BIOFUELS AS IMO REMOVES REGULATORY HURDLE - GARD
MARPOL Annex VI regulations were written for petroleum derived fuels but also apply to biofuels. It has been a challenge to meet the regulatory req ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO THE EU INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY
European countries have increased coal imports from Indonesia due to the energy crisis that hit the region after Russia cuts gas exports to Europe. ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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