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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING: GLOBAL TAX REFORM - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
OECD rules designed to implement a global minimum corporate tax rate for very large multinational groups have now been published and are expected t ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
PARTIES CONCLUDE JOINT R&D AGREEMENT FOR WORLD’S FIRST AMMONIA FLOATING STORAGE AND REGASIFICATION BARGE CONTRIBUTING TO PROMOTING THE EARLY INTRODUCTION OF AMMONIA FUEL - NYK
NYK Line, Nihon Shipyard Co., Ltd. (NSY), ClassNK, and IHI Corporation (IHI) signed a joint research and development agreement for the commercializ ...
Monday, 22 August 22
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT IMPOSED ON NEW PROGRESSIVE ROYALTIES FOR COAL
Indonesian President Joko Widodo has signed a Government Regulation (Number 26 of 2022) on 15 August 2022 related to the progressive royalty rates ...
Monday, 22 August 22
CHINA'S JULY RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS HIT 5-YR HIGH AS WEST SHUNS MOSCOW - REUTERS
China’s coal imports from Russia jumped 14% in July from a year earlier to their highest in at least five years, as China bought discounted c ...
Sunday, 21 August 22
COAL-RICH POLAND FACES WINTER OF ENERGY DISCONTENT - DW
Poland uses 10 million tons of coal a year to heat households — a whopping 87% of all coal consumed in EU homes in 2019, according to the War ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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