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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Friday, 02 September 22
ABM INVESTAMA BUYS 30% GEMS SHARES FOR US$ 420 MILLION
PT ABM Investama Tbk through its indirect subsidiary, bought a 30% stake in the PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk for US$ 420 million or around Rp 6.2 tri ...
Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal comp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
A COMBINED US$6.8-BILLION CASH BALANCE OF INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES COULD PROVIDE FOR TIMELY INVESTMENTS IN GREEN TRANSITION - IEEFA
A combined US$6.8-billion cash balance of Indonesian coal companies could provide for timely investments in green transition
The opp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO REMOVE THE INDIAN OCEAN HIGH RISK AREA - BIMCO
After more than a decade of effective threat-reducing counter-piracy operations the shipping industry has removed the ‘Indian Ocean High Risk ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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