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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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