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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
Friday, 23 September 22
EUROPEAN STEEL BUYERS SEEK DIRECTION IN VOLATILE MARKET - MEPS INTERNATIONAL
Demand for steel is slow to recover, after the summer break. Mill production costs continue to increase. Steel purchasers are uncertain about the f ...
Friday, 23 September 22
BUOYANT COAL INDUSTRY SEEKS WAYS TO STAY IN THE LONG-TERM ENERGY MIX - REUTERS
There’s no doubt that the global coal industry has been a major beneficiary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy c ...
Friday, 23 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In view of the forthcoming winter, Europe is trying to escape from its energy (oil & gas) dependency from Russia to ensure energy abundance eve ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA'S DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS 3-MONTH LOW IN AUGUST ON RAINS, COVID CURBS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in August slipped to a three-month low as some mines in its biggest coal mining regions reduced operations or even ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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