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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
Sunday, 02 October 22
MISC STRENGTHENS ITS PARTNERSHIP WITH SEARIVER MARITIME
MISC Berhad (MISC) today announced that its subsidiaries Polaris LNG Three Pte. Ltd. and Polaris LNG Four Pte. Ltd. have secured long-term time cha ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This week, focus turns to the 38th APPEC Conference, where leading professionals from the global oil industry will discuss the future key drivers o ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
HIGH COAL PRICES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR DOMESTIC NON-FERROUS METAL COMPANIES - ICRA
According to ICRA on Monday, the high price of coal will have a negative effect on the profitability of domestic non-ferrous metal companies that m ...
Tuesday, 27 September 22
14% INCREASE IN EUROPEAN COAL DEMAND TO BE SHORT-TERM TREND - WOOD MACKENZIE
European seaborne thermal coal demand is projected to increase 14% or 12 million metric tonnes (Mt) this year to 98 Mt as it grapples with the curr ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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