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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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