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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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