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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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