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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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