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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
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Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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