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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
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Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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