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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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