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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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