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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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