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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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