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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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