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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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