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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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