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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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